Home/NBA Evals

model evals

NBA Evals

Historical persisted slate projections joined to completed boxscores. Player lanes and team points use RMSE; win probability uses Brier score.

date range

4/14/26-6/8/26

44 evaluated slates

player eval rows

3,242

any player metric

FPM rows

1,771

players with actual minutes

team eval rows

176

team points and outcomes

Minutes

RMSE

5.15

latest 4.04

3,242 player rows

Apr 19, 2026Jun 8, 2026

Fantasy Points

RMSE

7.20

latest 6.49

3,242 player rows

Apr 19, 2026Jun 8, 2026

FPM

RMSE

0.555

latest 0.430

1,771 played-player rows

Apr 19, 2026Jun 8, 2026

Points

RMSE

4.28

latest 4.64

3,242 player rows

Apr 19, 2026Jun 8, 2026

Rebounds

RMSE

1.91

latest 1.45

3,242 player rows

Apr 19, 2026Jun 8, 2026

Assists

RMSE

1.22

latest 1.13

714 player rows

May 15, 2026Jun 8, 2026

Team Points

RMSE

13.75

latest 5.14

176 team rows

Apr 14, 2026Jun 8, 2026

Win Probability

Brier

0.230

latest 0.274

176 team rows

Apr 14, 2026Jun 8, 2026

NBA slate history

From Apr 14, 2026 through Jun 8, 2026, with each lane evaluated when its persisted projections exist.

Date	Players	FPM Rows	Teams	Min	FPTS	FPM	Pts	Reb	Ast	Team Pts	Win Prob
2026-06-08	41	20	2	4.04	6.49	0.430	4.64	1.45	1.13	5.14	0.274
2026-06-05	41	19	2	3.39	4.70	0.310	3.07	1.27	0.86	4.27	0.257
2026-06-03	41	20	2	3.83	5.43	0.368	3.34	2.14	1.23	10.40	0.232
2026-05-30	39	19	2	4.91	7.24	0.345	3.74	2.17	0.99	4.88	0.239
2026-05-28	39	28	2	6.22	6.64	0.452	3.61	2.12	1.26	13.03	0.158
2026-05-26	39	26	2	4.16	6.60	0.575	4.78	1.91	1.25	12.99	0.205
2026-05-25	47	27	2	6.10	7.94	0.713	4.08	2.09	1.22	18.16	0.208
2026-05-24	39	25	2	7.21	8.95	0.796	5.03	1.94	0.87	20.64	0.253
2026-05-23	47	19	2	7.22	8.95	0.416	3.10	1.56	1.04	45.36	0.203
2026-05-22	39	28	2	3.97	7.49	1.095	4.88	2.06	1.20	9.59	0.256
2026-05-21	47	26	2	2.59	5.09	0.559	3.23	1.30	1.70	8.32	0.102
2026-05-20	39	22	2	6.76	9.92	0.393	4.56	2.31	1.58	8.98	0.146
2026-05-19	47	19	2	4.39	5.02	0.255	3.38	1.51	0.91	2.31	0.101
2026-05-18	39	21	2	6.45	9.15	0.391	5.68	2.38	1.53	6.41	0.312
2026-05-17	45	26	2	5.13	7.51	0.685	4.93	1.51	1.02	19.62	0.465
2026-05-15	85	54	4	5.85	7.46	0.541	4.42	1.81	1.27	14.47	0.160
2026-05-13	45	19	2	5.71	7.00	0.350	4.65	1.86	N/A	5.25	0.461
2026-05-11	89	47	4	3.98	7.81	0.700	5.16	1.53	N/A	7.12	0.172
2026-05-10	93	46	4	5.72	8.11	0.695	4.34	1.77	N/A	14.52	0.281
2026-05-09	89	45	4	3.63	5.80	0.614	3.68	1.57	N/A	7.63	0.182
2026-05-08	93	45	4	3.43	6.27	0.556	4.30	2.00	N/A	9.86	0.097
2026-05-07	89	44	4	3.34	6.07	0.455	3.90	1.37	N/A	9.89	0.109
2026-05-06	93	48	4	5.86	6.17	0.604	3.06	1.81	N/A	11.40	0.058
2026-05-05	89	46	4	4.37	5.85	0.371	3.43	1.67	N/A	12.60	0.085
2026-05-04	93	46	4	5.65	7.53	0.486	3.78	1.86	N/A	15.42	0.385
2026-05-03	88	44	4	4.23	6.63	0.499	3.74	2.35	N/A	9.96	0.117
2026-05-02	50	19	2	5.24	6.76	0.405	4.03	2.10	N/A	12.74	0.591
2026-05-01	130	61	6	3.86	5.95	0.562	3.65	2.13	N/A	23.41	0.309
2026-04-30	134	71	6	5.06	7.21	0.506	4.23	1.85	N/A	18.27	0.256
2026-04-29	130	54	6	4.36	6.54	0.311	4.65	1.91	N/A	11.14	0.169
2026-04-28	132	80	6	4.24	6.33	0.627	4.23	2.06	N/A	12.84	0.240
2026-04-27	124	67	6	6.16	7.63	0.555	4.22	1.78	N/A	15.92	0.159
2026-04-26	147	98	8	5.74	9.48	0.610	5.25	2.28	N/A	16.60	0.172
2026-04-25	151	92	8	6.71	8.43	0.530	4.84	2.28	N/A	10.25	0.215
2026-04-24	107	62	6	5.41	7.11	0.370	4.56	2.05	N/A	6.96	0.272
2026-04-23	117	73	6	5.00	8.38	0.749	5.07	1.78	N/A	11.46	0.257
2026-04-22	74	49	4	6.07	6.65	0.487	3.79	1.75	N/A	16.87	0.067
2026-04-21	107	60	6	5.45	8.36	0.425	5.08	2.11	N/A	15.19	0.554
2026-04-20	117	58	6	4.43	6.64	0.387	4.19	1.84	N/A	6.83	0.314
2026-04-19	147	98	8	5.58	5.98	0.616	3.48	1.75	N/A	13.93	0.181
2026-04-18	0	0	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	8.98	0.199
2026-04-17	0	0	4	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	15.55	0.247
2026-04-15	0	0	4	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	12.63	0.376
2026-04-14	0	0	4	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	7.56	0.208